GHANSHYAM J PATEL | Geo- politics and international relations rest squarely on a pivotal adage i.e. there are no permanent friends or permanent enemies but there are only permanent interests. Many of world powers such as Alexander, British Empire, USSR, US etc., since time immemorial wanted to conquer and rule Afghanistan which is relatively small landlocked central Asian country. All of them wanted to have control over Afghanistan due to its geo- strategic location.
The crucial position of Afghanistan in the ancient silk route and central location between historic power of Eurasia, Middle East and South Asia has served as both boon and bane. The huge economic potential in form of transit and transport hub between Central and South Asia has not been utilized by Afghanistan due to constant invasions and other internal conflicts.
Afghanistan is also known as the graveyard of empires because it is easy to invade as there is no standing army, difficult to conquer and impossible to rule by foreign powers because Afghanistan is sui generis in many ways. Before we analyse current scenario let’s take a glimpse of some eminent historical events.
CRUCIAL HISTORICAL EVENTS
The conflict of supremacy in central Asia between Russian and British Empire in the nineteenth century was later known as the great game. By the end of nineteenth century both agreed to have Afghanistan as buffer zone between them.
In 1978, the People’s Democratic Party of Afghanistan organised a coup against Daoud Khan which is also called as the Saur (Communist) revolution. On the Christmas Eve of 1979, Soviet army invaded Afghanistan because of umpteen upheavals. The UN general assembly opposed this invasion along with other thirty-four Muslim nations. The Soviet army soon controlled cities, communication systems but not rural areas due to arduous terrain. Rural Areas were under the control of the Taliban’s. All disparate tribes, rebel groups and warlords joined hands to fight the godless invader Russians (as they were atheist) which famously known as a cry for a “Holy War”. Mujahedeen were fighters in this holy war called as Jihad and were supported by US, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey etc. Osama Bin Laden, a young lad from a rich family of Saudi Arabia, came to fight this Afghan- Soviet war and later founded Al-Qaeda. During this war against USSR various warlords like Ahmad shah Massoud and groups like Taliban and Al-Qaeda emerged in 1980s. The vehement support from USA and Pakistan’s ISI the war is drawn to a bloody stalemate. Gorbachev’s reforms and various other factors led to withdrawal of all Soviet forces.
After that warlords began to find among themselves for supremacy and this set the beginning of Afghan civil war. The rise of Taliban started in 1994 and it tried to fill the vacuum created after the afghan civil war. After collapse of Najibullah Afghan government in 1992, warlords continued to fight and finally Taliban emerged from the south (base- Kandahar) as the largest and most powerful terrorist group. On September 9, 2001, Ahmad Shah Massoud, military commander who fought against Soviet, was assassinated by Taliban. Mullah Omar, leader of Taliban was supported by Pakistan. Taliban gave shelter and supported Al-Qaeda, an extremist international terrorists group led by Osama Bin Laden. Al-Qaeda led myriad terror attacks such as 9/11, which led to the beginning of war on terror. President George W Bush in 2001, said “Either you are with us or against us” and operation enduring freedom (2001-2014) has begun. The US asked Taliban to hand over Osama Bin Laden and exorcize Al-Qaeda from their soil. The US and NATO army attacked Afghanistan as Taliban refused the above directions and within few months Taliban government fell but Taliban fighters went into hiding in mountains. The Guerrilla warfare commenced and which included ambushes, IED bombs etc.
SUFFERINGS SO FAR
For nearly next two decades the government of Afghanistan with the help of US and NATO forces, has been battling to retain their control in Afghanistan against the resilient Taliban. All these forces at time of invading Afghanistan in October 2001 were oblivious to myriad deleterious ramifications such as constant 12,000 US troops deployed in Afghanistan, death of more than 2,500 American soldiers, loss of more than 2 trillion dollars and death of around 1,60,000 people including 43,000 civilians.
PEACE DEAL
On February 29, 2020 the deal which is referred as “Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan” was signed at the end of a weeklong period of Reduction in violence. This agreement led to fully withdrawal of the US and NATO allies troops within 14 months if the Taliban uphold the terms of an agreement. The whole accord gives no reference to current Afghan government.
The deal also postulates for releasing of prisoners from both sides i.e. Taliban will release 1,000 prisoners of the other side and US supported Afghan government will release 5,000 Taliban prisoners. This peace deal is huge victory for Taliban as now they will get clear withdrawal timeline of US forces and moreover removal of sanctions which are imposed by US and UN. There are umpteen stealth annexures to this peace accord.
The deal states that “Taliban will not allow any other terrorists groups or individuals to use the soil of Afghanistan against the security and interests of the United States and its allies.” This provision of deal is unrealistic as camaraderie of Taliban and many other terrorists groups is well known to all.
IMPACT ON INDIA
India has to recalibrate its position taking into a view this new US-Taliban deal. India has kept a close eye on what has happened between the US and Taliban negotiators over this past two years. Taliban sees India as ‘hostile force’ that supported northern alliance which was amiable to Indian Interests. India has invested more than three billion dollars in Afghanistan in various infrastructure projects like the Afghanistan’s Parliament in Kabul, restoration of the Stor Palace and dam that has earned huge goodwill from the Afghanis people especially Pashtuns. As there is tremendous goodwill generated by India in Afghanis but it doesn’t stand to survive long enough.
India faces threaten from various terrorist groups- Haqqani network, Al-Qaeda, Islamic state, Lakshar-e-Taliba, Jamaat-ud-Dawa and Jaish-e-Mohammed that can relocate position for more terrorist attack. Many people in India believe that another period of darkness looms after this truce deal. The rise of Taliban is deleterious for India, few instances of the same can be glanced back to hijack of IC-814 in 1999 which led to the release of Masood Azhar and formation of Jaish-e-Mohammed which attacked India numerous times from the Parliament attack in 2001 to Pulwama attack in 2019.
Once Taliban was in power in Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001, they brought horrors, fears and brutally killed their own Afghanis people. They are quite renounced for sheltering and harbouring the world’s most wanted terrorist. India on records have support for an Afghan-owned, Afghan led reconciliation process but India wants the re-elected Ashraf Ghani government to be the key player in the talks with the Taliban, which US did not allow. “For good or bad, the post-Taliban order is breaking down in Kabul and sooner rather than later, India has to make significant revisions to its Afghan policy”.
CONCLUSION AND WAY FORWARD
The vision for halcyon days in Afghanistan is no more than reverie. Many of provisions of the peace deal are quixotic and perilous. The deal will put many countries in precarious situation as recalcitrant Taliban will began reign of terror.
This deal can be vividly compared with US-North Vietnam peace deal of 1973. This deal left north and South Vietnam to negotiate with themselves which led to invasion of South Vietnam by North Vietnam. Despite US commitments in favour South Vietnam, it eventually and nefariously abandoned South Vietnam. It led to one of the greatest humiliation of US military and diplomacy. The juxtaposing of US-North Vietnam and current US–Taliban deal lead us to pivotal similarities and corollaries. The incorrigible Taliban after few months will go back to their old ways and will start dismantling democratically elected government of Afghanistan. This truce agreement will pave the way for the Taliban to retake Kabul and power in Afghanistan.
As in 2014 US under the guidance of President Barack Obama had declared to pull out some of the American soldiers and within 2 years Taliban has captured a lot of area in Afghanistan. Just like the US betrayed the Kurdish allies in Syria and allowed the Turkish army to run havoc, the Taliban would do the same with the Afghan government and civilians. Donald Trump’s policy of America first may backfire in Afghanistan. The pull-out of US soldiers from Afghanistan and Syria is one of the crucial agenda of Donald Trump to win the upcoming election. The Taliban’s extremist ideology and stringent enforcement of Shariat will lead to gross violation of human right and barbaric conditions for Afghani civilians and especially women.
Ghanshyam J Patel is an undergraduate student of Gujarat National Law University, Gandhinagar. He can be reached at ghanshyam22801@gmail.com
Photo Source: Gulf News
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